Financial Crisis 2020 Fact or Fable

  

economic cycle

Expert economists are of two kinds, those who believe in the economic cycle theory and those who don't. The theory of economic cycle has helped predict most of the financial market collapses and peaks of the past. As per this theory, the US could be heading for one of the worst financial crisis ever around 2017-2020. Is this bound to happen? If yes, what would be the circumstances leading to such a predicament and more importantly what could be its impact on the already widened economic strata of the society?

Unemployment crisis that especially aggregated by military layoffs and tech company layoffs that shook the nation is now slowly settling down. Job market does not bleak mow and more people are changing their status to employed from unemployed. But even then, the crisis is hovering around the corner waiting to smother us down. It has not developed overnight, but is the result of a series of events that have been slowly, steadily and stealthily making the economy unstable and leading us towards doom. Currently, as a result of inflation rearing its ugly head, the prices of commodities are on the rise and dollar on the low. The cost of education, healthcare and properties are on the rise. At the same time, income/wages is stagnant and does not show any inclination to increase. The US market is very much consumer based and has always encouraged the consumer to spend more and more. The consumer does exactly as prompted, even going beyond his/her means by borrowing more and more. The rich will get more money to invest back in the market. This widens the chasm between the rich and the mediocre/ poor of the society, making the rich richer and the poor, poorer. This could be the saddest but realistic fate of 90% of the Americans in 2017.
So the answer to what would be the circumstances that lead to 2017 crisis is without doubt, a debt laden market. Inflation is also the culprit causing more layoffs, increasing the need to borrow more and this will in turn cause more inflation raising the interest rates culminating in less economic activity. Turning a blind eye or denying its existence does not resolve the issue as it is very much here and now. There may be some economists who might fear deflation, but one begs to differ here as nothing can empty a bank account like inflation. Though inflation is said to shift the money from the savers and investors to the debtors, the wages lag and cost of living rises unbearably.
So the net effect here is economic stagnation and decline.
The summary of an analysis on this financial crisis which appears to be inevitable is though this crisis will make the rich richer, the market again is dependent on how much the mediocre / poor will spend. So the way to survive would be to curtail spending and to live well below means.
up Top